Israel First has already lost the war on Iran

9 March 2026

Israel and the US are winning the war of triumphalism against and have taken out exponentially more Iranians than Iran, but the Israel First alliance has already lost the actual war, and it’s the actual war that counts. You won’t read about this in the mainstream media because they’re largely repeating Trump’s bluster and propaganda. Israel has enforced a near total censorship on its citizens so the level of destruction being inflicted by Iran doesn’t dampen spirits—do you place your faith in genocidal Israel or the independent journalists who are sharing a different story?

No war has ever been won from the air. The US couldn’t defeat Yemen from the air, how on earth does it imagine it can take out Iran? Trump knows that he can’t send in ground troops because that’ll end in a protracted bloodbath similar to the failed wars in Afghanistan, Iraq or, a better parallel, Vietnam. There’s simply no way the US can send enough soldiers to match Iran on home soil. The Kurds have said they won’t be Israel First’s proxy fighters and don’t want to be betrayed by Israel First. If Azerbaijan sends in troops more the fool them, Iran has been clear: it’s prepared for all eventualities.

So Israel First can bomb Tehran and other parts of Iran to smithereens. It can bomb more hospitals/medical facilities (13 so far), schools (190), historic sites (including the Golestan Palace (Rose Garden Palace) in Tehran, a UNESCO World Heritage site) and media centers (two, one completely destroyed), but to what end? At some point the brutal attack will come to a close and Iran will live on.

There’s no prospect of regime change. The US attempted to prepare the way for this in January by openly destabilizing the Iranian currency, a manipulative if initially successful strategy inasmuch as it triggered shopkeeper led protests; US treasury secretary Scott Bessent bragged about this at Davos. Then Mossad and the CIA infiltrated and took over the protests, sending in militia operatives wearing balaclavas and brandishing machine guns, which resulted in mass shootings and the burning of schools and mosques—not your average democracy protest. Videos of the increasingly riotous demonstrations show these types in action. Iran thwarted the attempted coup, defending itself as any independent country would (even Israel and the US). All reports emanating from inside Iran indicate, including from CNN, paint a picture of a country that is calm and focused. There are no queues at petrol stations, the shops are stocked up.

The delusional Israel First alliance, believing their own colonialist, racist rhetoric, dreams that Iranians want nothing more than to replace their government. It believes that if it delivers enough destruction Iranians will understand that this is all the Iranian government’s fault and will turn to the Israel First for salvation. There’s been a repeated attempt to broadcast signs of the promised uprising but it’s become clear that nothing of the sort is taking place. There’s no sign of internal uprising, quite the opposite, with millions taking to the streets in support of Ali Hosseini Khamenei and the government’s defence of the country. Instead the assassination has provoked a region-wide show of support Khamenei, especially by Shia populations, including in Iraq, which has attacked US military bases in the country. Shia Muslims rightly believe they have no choice but to treat the assassination as an act of war on their religion.

John Mearsheimer, professor of international relations at the University of Chicago, noted the other day how the Nazi bombing of London during the Blitz resulted in the British developing a greater sense of unity and resistance then ever before, to the point where the Spirit of the Blitz is eulogised ad infinitum to this day. Yet somehow Israel and the US don’t understand that Iranians are humans, too, and were always going to respond to the bombing of their schools, universities, mosques, sports stadiums, historic sites, media centers etc along with the mass murder of civilians, a horrendous proportion of them children, in the same way.

Reuters reports that US military investigators are now saying it’s likely that US forces were responsible for the attack on the Iranian girls’ school in Minab that killed 175, the overwhelming number of them schoolgirls, a uniquely horrific warcrime—this after the US blamed Iran. To date the Israel First alliance has minimally murdered 1,330 Iranians whereas 10 Israeli Jews have been killed (I write “killed” because the overwhelming evidence points to Iran targeting strategic sights and assets, including US military bases in the region, while the First Alliance is indiscriminately taking out civilians). Zionists nevertheless insist we mourn only their deaths while we celebrate the deaths of Iranians. In so many ways it’s the Gaza playbook all over again.

Iranian calls for internal human rights and democratic reforms are legitimate and should be supported in a non-interfering way. There are no excuses for the Iranian government’s widespread repression of human rights, even if the west hasn’t shown any interest in providing a balanced picture of the country ever since Iran had the temerity to overthrow the US-imposed colonial Shah in 1979, even if countries that face perpetual external threats, as Iran has done, often believe its necessary to introduce tougher rule than would otherwise be necessary. But pro-democracy Iranians don’t to support the First Israel alliance, which has repeatedly declared it doesn’t give a flying fuck about Iranian democracy while murdering Iranian civilians en masse and bombing civilian infrastructure and oil facilities. Netanyahu, Trump and the war’s sponsors are such dumb racists they can’t understand that they’re effectively building the resistance to Israel First colonialism, not weakening it.

Somehow the Israel First alliance believed that assassinating Ali Hosseini Khamenei would provide yet another prompt for Iran to implode. They didn’t understand what has been common knowledge for ages; that the Iranian leadership has been preparing for war for decades, it survived the assassination of many leading politicians and military figures in the 12-day war seamlessly, and was always going to have a plan in place if Israel First assassinated Khamenei or any other leading figures. The millions of Iranians who took to the streets as a mark of respect, even though they could face attack, dwarfed the tiny protests that celebrated his passing. The Iranians have a new martyr: Khamenei, a revered figure across the world of Shia Islam, was in his home when Israel First took him out, having decided that he didn’t want to live a life of fear and was ready to die for his country if necessary. Those in his family who were murdered in the same attack had taken the choice to remain with him and care for him. The result? Israel First has murderd the leader who issued a fatwa that outlawed the development of nuclear weapons. Khamenei’s successor, his son, will without doubt be strongly advised to finally develop a nuclear capacity. Oops.

For all of their dominance of the western media narrative, Netanyahu and Trump are already running out of time. Opposition to the war in the United States is running at 60% according to a CNN poll. This of course includes many from the American First constituency that voted for Trump on the basis that he would end the fruitless, counterproductive, murderous foreign wars of the past in order to focus on creating jobs. Whatever was going through Trump’s scrambled, narcissistic brain when he took the US into war, he appears to have hoped that he could achieve one of his “in-and-out” quick successes before focusing on building up support before the mid-terms. He told Wall Street he needed just five days. After a few days started to talk about needing a month. Whatever the timeline, Trump knows he can’t sustain the war for long and the US will have to withdraw sooner rather than later, at which point the mission will have failed, however much he lies that it hasn’t.

The America First grouping didn’t vote for Trump on the basis that its wrong to bomb countries at will. Maybe that was part of it for some—Tucker Carlson has become a brave exposer of Israel First—but primarily they wanted to end the warmongering because the wars cost US taxpayers huge amounts of money and many of them can barely afford to put food on the table while heating their homes. Yet Trump is leading a war he can’t win at a cost of between $1-10 billion a day while the cost of oil has already leapt 25%. A global recession is likely to follow the lines of the oil-crisis recession of 1973 and will include the US in its sweep. All because of what? Mossad holds evidence that links Trump explicitly to Epstein paedophilia? Zionists including Miriam Adelson, who has donated $100m to Trump and the Republicans, and offered Trump $250m to run in 2028, own him and have told him to attack because Netanyahu correctly calculated that February amounted to the last clear opportunity to attack? The Christian evangelist messianic Zionist fringe have taken over what remains of Trump’s brain? The Zionist/corporate/military-controlled deep state wanted a war because the more weapons the US uses up the more the military weapons corporations will have to produce and the more money they’ll make?

Whatever the case, Trump is toast, Adelson can forget 2028. Meanwhile has anyone else noticed that Netanyahu hasn’t appeared at a press conference since the war began. It’s just not very Churchillian to remain tucked away while your country faces daily missile attacks and a future more uncertain than ever before.

The arrogance of the Israel First alliance is so great it seems to believe that they can decide when the war ends. Admittedly the US pulled this off at the end of the 12-day war, when Iran agreed to the truce. Yet Iran has learned that trusting Israel First in any way whatsoever is foolhardy, with Netanyahu and Trump twice interrupting negotiations with missile attacks. Iran has been clear from the start that it’s not seeking a ceasefire, and is ready for whatever the the First Alliance throws at the country. This time around it’s in it for good. The US and Israel can call for the war to end whenever they like, Iran has set its objectives, distributed these to military commanders, and won’t stop fighting until it has achieved its objective.

Trump knows he’s in trouble. Behind the scenes he’s has made different overtures to starting ceasefire negotiations, only for the remains to refuse to sit at the table. The rebuttals have led Trump to assume a ultra-bellicose stance, declaring that a ground invasion won’t be necessary—“It’s a waste of time,” he told NBC last week. “They’ve lost everything. They’ve lost their navy. They’ve lost everything they can lose.” A few days ago he preposterously, comically called for “unconditional surrender”. In all likelihood he’ll go for maximum blitz in the coming days so he can boast about some kind of victory when in reality Israel First won’t have achieved any of its objectives—while Iran will continue to go about achieving its own objectives. These can only be to incapacitate Israel and the US so comprehensively it won’t have to endure a third unprovoked war. It owes this to its citizens, the region and the world.

There’s no scenario whereby the Iranians won’t have enough capacity to continue after the Israel First alliance withdraws. Independent analysts believe that Iran has a far bigger missile arsenal than the US and Israel combined and also has a far greater capacity to manufacture new missiles. In the last few days it’s been firing a new kind of firework-display cluster bomb” missile in the direction of Tel Aviv that the Israel First air defences can’t cope with at all. Iran has also taken out five primary US radars that cost $1 billion each.

The idea that Iran is running out of missiles because it has been is firing off fewer than it did in the opening days is groundless. Iran trialed this approach in the 12-day war, firing of ageing, cheap missiles en masse during the opening days to drain the Israel First alliance of its missile defences and then enter a war of attrition. Iran demonstrated with ease during the 12-day war that it can reduce Israel’s Iron Dome to an Iron Sieve. Independent ex-military and ex-CIA analysts are reporting that Iran is turning Tel Aviv into Gaza, and it’s only just begun. Israeli-Jewish citizens who support the genocide of the Palestinians and celebrated Israel’s attack on Iran two times over feel betrayed, and you know how bullies start to behave when someone stands up to them, they cry.

In recent days Iran also started to use missiles that emerge from beneath the earth, so there are no launchers for the First Alliance to target. Iran also has the advantage of controlling the waters and ports, making it logistically impossible for the Israel First lobby to maintain the war from 1,100 and 7,200 miles respectively. Israel First warships won’t be able to enter the waters surrounding Iran because Iran will take them out, most straightforwardly using mines, although many options will be available. Iran’s control of the waters for the first time in living memory means that it will also control a substantial proportion of the global oil trade. The west is going to have to ask very nicely indeed to persuade Iran to give up such influence. Iran is also demanding that the perpetrators of war meet the cost of any damage. How’s that going to go down in Israel and the US?

In the run-up to the start of the Israel First war—it’s not an “Iran War”, it’s an “Israel-US war on Iran”—Iran made it clear again and again that it would respond by attacking US military bases in the region, shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, taking out key energy supplies and so on. Yet no sooner had Israel and the US launched their attack then western leaders stepped in to condemn Iran for responding. How dare they do what they say they’re going to do, that not how politics is supposed to work! For Israel, the US and much of the west, Iran was duty bound to accept the justice of the war and bow to their demands. This speaks to an incredibly deep racism that has to be overcome in the west.

The geopolitical consequences of the Israel-US war on Iran are going to be game-changing. Deprived of military bases that will cost trillions of dollars rebuild, and if rebuilt will face the prospect of being turned to rubble once again, the US-controlled satellites that surround Iran—especially Bahrain (where street protests against the pro-US government are gaining in momentum), Dubai, Saudia Arabia and UAE—will no longer have the US to defend them. Their populations, especially Shia elements, will increase their call to have governments that represent the interests of citizens rather than a corrupt elite. Dubai and the UAE will no longer be able to function as a playground destination for the super-wealthy. The US will be all but out of the region, one it’s been determined to control because of its addiction to oil and money. By submitting to Israel’s demands for regional supremacy the US will have inflicted more damage to its economy and geopolitical influence than at any point since its capitulation in Vietnam.

There’s only one basic scenario that can emerge in the wake of the US losing control of the region. Iran will become stronger, China and Russia will deepen their alliance with Iran, and countries such as Saudi Arabia will have little choice but to develop cordial relations with Iran rather than confront it as an existential enemy. The fact that so many other countries are able to get along perfectly well with Iran indicates that it will be perfectly possible to do this. Iran will be empowered through its control of oil. The US already has unusually low reserves, where will it get its oil from—because developing the wells in Venezuela is a ten-year project? Europe also has very low oil reserves. Putin has nevertheless said he’s no currently minded to sell oil to a continent that has gone to war with and imposed an oil embargo on Russia.

The US’s international reputation will be damaged severally. The humiliation might not be as great as Vietnam, nor should it be given that the US was at war with Vietnam for 20 years. Nevertheless the geopolitical consequences could be similar. For the US to lose a war it’s been gunning for since 1979, against a country it’s demonised more than any other during that whole period, and to lose its control of SWANA (South Western Asia and North Africa) and the major centre of the oil industry, is simply epic. There’s also no other outcome available because the Iranians are resolute, intelligent, united and have faith on their side, meaning they are prepared to die for their country in a way that the US nationalists are not.

As for Israel, which has of course launched a massively destructive campaign against Lebanon as well as Iran, it’s tempting to think that the current wars will precipitate a collapse in its power. In his new book Israel on the Brink, published earlier this year, Ilan Pappé forecasts that Israel is nearing its end. It might not appear that way but Pappé notes that brutal regimes are often at their most maniacal just before they implode. Israel may have been behaving psychotically for the last two-and-a-half years in particular but it has overreached and is suffering badly at the hands of Iran, much more so than it did during the twelve day war. Thanks to its messianic mindset Israel has taken the US into a war that will lead to a US retreat from the region, which will leave Israel incredibly exposed. Israel is also facing a further collapse in popular support in the US, even though this was already at a record low thanks to the ongoing genocide of the Palestinians. Anti-zionist Zohran Mamdani’s landslide election success confirmed the scale of the swing that had already unfolded before the war on Iran began. Now, despite Democratic prevarication, nine leading Democratic politicians who have received $9 million from AIPAC in recent years have criticised the attack. A long-term supporter of Palestine, Iran will minimally demand that Israel withdraws all troops from Gaza and the West Bank. Meanwhile on Friday Netanyahu made a statement calling for the slogan “Free Palestine!” to be considered antisemitic and banned. This kind of completely insanity has become completely normal.

To the liberals (including Iranian liberals who live in the west) who’ve been supporting the war as if it will progress women’s or queer rights in Iran, you can’t attempt to destroy a country, including its female and queer citizens, in the name of liberation, especially when the war is led by the US, which has murdered millions in its failed wars, and Israel, which continues to genocide the Palestinians, both countries neck-deep in paedophilia. If anything the war has led pro-democracy Iranians (those who actually live in Iran, those who should decide on Iran’s future) to side with the government, because to them its transparently clear that the Israel First alliance has zero interest in democracy. It has openly declared again and again that it wants to destroy Iran and install a US-Israeli regime—just like 1953. It is up to the people of Iran to decide their future, just like its up to the people of the west to decide the future of their countries. This is the basis of the democracy you say you support. It’s entirely legitimate to support progressive human rights and pro-democracy groups in Iran, of course it is, but not to bomb them. Please think carefully about the death-spree you’re endorsing. PS If you insult me, or invade and attempt to colonise my page, in the manner of an Israel First Zionist, I’ll block you. I learnt how to deal with this kind of behaviour early into Israel’s genocide.

How is the west in any kind of position to lecture the Iranians on human rights? Western governments that have murdered millions in the name of democracy while repressing their own peoples in many different ways need to transform their own conduct before they deign to tell other countries how they should behave, never mind go to war with them in order to break havoc and destruction, as has occurred in Iraq, Libya and Syria. Many colonial lies are spread about Iranian society that are disrespectful to the high proportion of Iranian women who hold down high level jobs and major positions, are freer than they have been for decades to not wear the hijab if they so choose, and don’t particularly like the rampant paedophilia, pornography, rape, sexual discrimination, sexual harassment and indeed general inequality that the west wants to thrust on them in addition to general mayhem.

As for UK, Keir Starmer is working most obvious with his “mate”, Richard Hermer, Starmer’s externally-appointed attorney general, who has provided him with the legal advice he needed to breach international law in support of Israel’s genocide, the US kidnapping of Maduro, the illegal proscription of Palestine Action, etc, and now has given the go-ahead for Britain’s airbase in Cyprus, Akrotiri, where the UK carried out 50% of spying missions in Gaza on behalf of Israel, to enter the war to “defend” its allies. You defensively can’t enter a war that your allies started, that’s absurd. All efforts are intended to contribute to victory. Meanwhile the Cypriots are protesting against what they rightly see as the UK’s ongoing colonisation of their island—Akrotiri is UK colonial territory, the UK can place nuclear weapons there if it likes, the Cypriots have no say—and the risk the UK is bringing to the island by entering the war. Cyprus doesn’t fancy being bombed by Iran because of Zionism, who does?

Despite the headline horror or the genocide in Gaza and war on Iran, which give the impression that things can only get worse, the political terrain of the west has been shifting in encouraging ways. Thanks to the distraction of the Israel First war we barely got to hear about the Green’s runaway victory in last Thursday’s by-election in Stroud, where the Green’s increased their vote from 64 to 67%. Labour’s vote went down from 18 to 6%, which amounts to further evidence of the government’s complete implosion under the genocidal, warmongering, paedophile-sponsoring, lying, feeble, clueless Starmer. This follows the Green party’s storming success in the Gorton and Denton by-election that took place two weeks ago, where Labour’s vote also collapsed. How did Keir Starmer react? Instead of accepting that lessons had to be learned, like a contrite human being, he accused the Green candidate, a young, white, female plumber and plasterer who wants to help poor people get by, of being an extremist! Meanwhile the pathetic 1% growth in the UK economy is only going to the rich, including those who invest in AI and the military-industrial complex, which underpins the genocide and the Israel First war on Iran. We await the ICJ’s ruling on genocide so that Starmer, Hermer and much of the UK establishment can be tried for enabling and supporting Israel’s genocide of the Palestinians.

Some light relief: During the genocide Israel agreed to pay influencers $7,000 per post to defend its actions. It turns out it didn’t pay them and now a grouping is suing Israel.

More light relief: A week ago Agence France-Presse published a story with the headline “Iran strikes send VIP Dubai influencers ‘back to reality’”.

Free Iran, free Palestine, free the world!

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